Not a childlessness tax: Hetmantsev suggests steps to overcome the demographic crisis

Danylo Hetmantsev, Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada's Tax Committee, shared his thoughts on the KIIS survey recently conducted among Ukrainian migrants abroad and commented on the demographic situation.

"I have great respect for sociologists and scientists who deal with this issue and give objective assessments of short- and medium-term prospects.

The current situation, the dynamics, and the estimates of the near future are quite alarming (to be fair, they were so before 2022, but the full-scale war only made them worse).

To summarize:

▫️наші the biggest losses are the people who will not return; after the war is over, there may be about 25 (according to other estimates, 30) million of us left, although it is not yet known when the war will end;

The number of those who will not return is increasing by 100-150 thousand every month;

♦ according to the KIIS survey, the proportion between those who are more likely to return and those who are less likely to return is already 50/50, and the longer the war lasts, the more this proportion will change in a negative way;

66% of those living in Germany, Poland, and the Czech Republic (and a huge number of Ukrainians have moved there) are now completely or rather satisfied with their current life there (the opposite is true for 26%), 64% either already have another citizenship, have applied for it and are awaiting a decision, or want to obtain citizenship of another state (34% have not and are planning to), which are additional markers of the prospects for return.

I repeat: the prospects are quite complicated, creating serious systemic problems for post-war recovery. We have to be honest - we can agree on attracting investments and technologies as much as we want, but if there is no one to implement them...

Demographics and structural unemployment problems are not something that can be fixed in 5 or 10 years. If we start working in this direction now, without postponing it until after the war, we should expect results in the 40s of this century, when a new, next generation of Ukrainians will begin to come into active life, growing up and going through a certain educational path (I do not expect much from the importation of millions of people from third world countries for the development of Ukraine, but within a limited framework, such migration can take place, taking into account all the conditions and risks).

But we need to address the problem comprehensively now. I see the following steps as a necessary minimum for this.

1. Effective stimulation of the birth rate and creation of the necessary infrastructure for the growth and development of children, namely housing and work for young families, kindergartens, schools, a system of support for the development of personality and talents (extracurricular education, clubs, sections).

If you look at the results of the KIIS survey, it clearly indicates the conditions under which the return of our citizens from abroad is possible (of course, those who are considering returning): 34% - if the critical infrastructure works properly, 26% - if there is a place to live, or if the damaged housing is repaired or another one can be obtained, 16% - if there is a job, 13% - if there is a school or kindergarten for children. I would like to make an important clarification: these are not only conditions for the return of Ukrainians from abroad, but also conditions for those who are currently in Ukraine to leave.

All these points should be reflected in the plans and programs for the restoration of Ukraine, because we are already facing "competition for Ukrainians," and it will intensify over time (why is a separate topic).

2. Overcoming the problem of poverty and reducing the income gap with the EU. Even if we manage and respond to the requests for infrastructure mentioned in the previous paragraph, we will still have (I do not want to consider the option of "deepening") a multiple difference in income between Ukrainians and residents of neighboring states (and we are not talking about a correct comparative comparison of earnings of people of the same profession or similar educational level, but a significant difference between people with a high level of education here and representatives of the lowest-skilled professions there) will only partially slow down potential migration and further aggravation of the demographic problem. Or it will postpone it for a certain period of time, when children will be raised here, but with the prospect of "going outside".

And this is already the task of building an economy of a completely different quality in the process of restoring the economy than the one that Ukraine had during the Soviet era and that was mostly used in the previous decades of independence - mainly raw material, resource and energy-intensive, with a low share of labor in the cost structure, with the production of mostly outdated and non-competitive products on the world market.

We need an economy focused on high-paying jobs, which is able to provide competitive wage conditions through efficiency in everything.

I am not talking about a total rapid transition of "everyone and everything" to "industries 4.0 or 5.0" - but metallurgical, agricultural, and defense production can also be modern, with 21st century standards and technologies, or it can remain as it was 100 years ago or more.

3. Reducing the gap in accessibility and quality of services provided by "people-oriented" sectors, especially education (at all levels) and health care.

These sectors have suffered enormous destruction as a result of the war. 211 healthcare facilities and 365 educational institutions were completely destroyed, and 1604 and 3798 facilities were damaged, respectively. The work on their restoration is ongoing (for example, every second medical facility has been restored to some extent), as we must continue to provide basic services to the population wherever the security situation allows. In this process, we feel great assistance from our partners, including those who, due to their own political circumstances, are limited in their ability to provide direct military assistance to Ukraine, but have no restrictions on humanitarian aid.

In these areas, we must also be guided by our key principle of "building better than before" and, as we move forward on our European integration path, pay special attention to reducing the gap in the quality and accessibility of services with the EU. As the task of closing the income gap is realized, this task will become increasingly important to ensure that Ukrainians remain living and working at home and that infrastructure can meet their growing needs and demands.

Of course, this is not a complete list of tasks that will need to be addressed to at least slow down the aggravation of the demographic situation we are moving towards (let's not forget that the number one challenge is the security situation), but we cannot do without addressing them," the MP said.