Above 45 hryvnia: bankers and financial analysts downgraded the dollar's forecast

Financial analysts, bankers, and the public expect the dollar to rise over the next year. The rate will exceed 45 hryvnia. This was reported by RBC-Ukraine with reference to data on the NBU website.

The dollar exchange rate

According to the NBU, in January 2025, financial analysts downgraded their forecast for the dollar over the next 12 months to 45.19 UAH/USD. In December 2024, they expected the exchange rate to be 44.83 UAH/USD.

Bankers expect the dollar to rise to 45.31 hryvnia. The previous forecast for October was 44.92 UAH/USD.

In addition, the population of Ukraine expected the exchange rate to be 44.53 UAH/USD in January. The December forecast is 44.11 UAH/USD.

Business executives forecast the exchange rate to be 44.42 UAH/USD (November forecast).

The dollar exchange rate

As a reminder, the official dollar exchange rate in 2024 increased by 10.7% to UAH 42.03. The exchange rate continued to rise in early 2025 and reached a high of 42.28 hryvnia on January 13. The exchange rate then dropped to 41.62 on February 17.

According to the NBU, the average selling rate for a cash dollar in 2024 increased by 11.2% to 42.07 hryvnia.

In January 2025, the cash exchange rate exceeded the level of 43 hryvnia, but then fell below 42 hryvnia.

The state budget for 2025 includes an average exchange rate of 45 UAH/USD and 45.6 in December. However, this figure is neither a benchmark nor a forecast for the NBU, which is responsible for exchange rate policy in Ukraine.